4 Thoughts for 2024

It’s the new year.

Everyone is making predictions.

I thought I’d get in on the action (with a home bias of course aka New Zealand).

Here’s the four things I’m thinking about we get the ball rolling with 2024.

1. Climate preparedness ⛈️

In a few weeks we will hit the one year anniversaries of the Auckland Anniversary Floods and Cyclone Gabrielle. I need not describe the calamity that these events wreaked, but only to say that sport was not immune to the havoc - with many clubs and associations devastated. 

For many, the visceral experience of seeing your clubrooms underwater was the penny drop moment. 

I’m picking in 2024, there will be a growing shift in rhetoric around climate change from  prevention to preparedness. We can expect to see continued action against carbon reduction targets by central and local governments, and those organisations directly in the sight lines of their funding. But for grassroots sports with facilities - expect to see more noise (and hopefully action) around preparation for climate impact.

👎 Losers

• Sports clubs and schools in flood plains (lots of parks and reserves are in flood plains) or near coastal erosion zones.

👍 Winners

• Not many - perhaps council buy-outs of residential property might pave the way for more sport, play and recreation assets to be built in these spaces - as has been done in the Canterbury Red Zones post-earthquake.

2. Recession 📉

Under the malaise of higher interest rates, a tightening labour market, and inflation, many sports will be feeling the pinch.

Bottom line - revenue streams will be down.

👎 Losers

• Younger demographics might have to pick between new experiences or new sneakers. Parents will be making hard choices about disposable income this year. Sports that depend on the parent dollar will see more financial headwinds.

👍 Winners

• High interest rates have been great for savers. Guess which demographic has the most savings? Golden oldies. Expect sports that have an older, less-debt laden demographic to not feel the pinch as much.

3. Immigration 🛬🛬🛬

New Zealand inward migration records have been smashed in the past 12 months. I’ll let the below Stats NZ charts speak for themselves.

👎 Losers

• Auckland sport infrastructure. Let’s assume 80% of these migrants stay in Auckland. That’s another 11 ½ indoor courts required to meet demand from these migrants alone.

👍 Winners

• Sports popular with Indians, Filipino and Chinese - badminton, football, table tennis, basketball, and cricket.

• Sport facilities embracing 24-hour access for these demographics.

4. Insurance 🛡️

I had one too many water cooler conversations in 2023 discussing sports clubs being underinsured or not insured. Fires and floods have unfortunately caught some clubs completely out. Insurance should be one of the most important lines on any sport club’s P&L, and ought to be given an appropriate level of due diligence. Yet - and as I often say - people don’t volunteer in sport to read insurance policies. Something’s got to change.

👎 Losers

• The sport clubs doing it tough after an event with inadequate or no insurance in place in 2023

• Those that don’t head the lessons here and review their insurances in 2024

👍 Winners

• Anyone that can impact the demand side of the equation and get sport clubs and associations thinking about insurance properly.

Got any thoughts of your own? Let me know.

And lastly, but not least - I hope you have a prosperous 2024 🥂.